WILL THE END OF M23 REBELS BRING PEACE TO DRC??

Latest update: 06/11/2013

Will the end of M23 rebels bring peace to DR Congo?

With the DRC’s M23 rebel group announcing the end of its rebellion, questions loom about whether an agreement can be reached with the Congolese government, and what the terms and effects of such an agreement would be.

By FRANCE 24 

Jon FROSCH / Sarah LEDUC 

 

With the Democratic Republic of Congo’s M23 rebel group declaring an end to its 20-month rebellion on Tuesday, all eyes are on a potential political solution to end the crisis in the east of the African country.
The M23 declaration that the group would disarm and demobilise troops came hours after government forces drove the fighters out of their final two strongholds, Tshanzu and Runyoni, early Tuesday morning.
Though the announcement was hailed as “a significant positive step in the right direction” by the US special envoy to the Congo, Russell Feingold, questions remain about the terms and ramifications of a potential agreement between rebels and Congolese President Joseph Kabila’s government.
For further insight, FRANCE 24 spoke with Filip Reyntjens, a specialist in sub-Saharan African politics and law at the University of Antwerp in Belgium.
Here are some highlights.
F24: Is the declaration by the M23 rebels that their rebellion is over to be trusted, or is it just for show?
FR: My impression is that it’s for real. They have been beaten decisively on the ground, and things have changed over the last year, and especially the last several weeks. These rebels have admitted defeat. So I think it’s the end of M23, or at the very least in its military form.
F24: What will be the terms of the agreement between the M23 rebels and the Congolese government?
FR: Well, for the moment, there is no agreement. The M23 rebels and the Congolese authorities were negotiating in Kampala [the capital of Uganda] up until ten days ago. The meetings didn’t collapse, but they didn’t lead to an agreement, either. If the negotiations start again, the terms of the debate will become quite different. The Congolese government will now be negotiating from a much stronger position after the military defeat of the M23.
F24: What guarantee is there that the terms of any agreement would be respected, especially given that the Congolese government did not keep its word after the peace agreements of 2009 with prior rebel group CNDP (National Congress for the Defence of the People)?
FR: Firstly, we don’t know what these terms would be exactly. At the meetings in Pretoria yesterday and today [at the summit of the Southern African Development Community and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region], African leaders were meant to sit down around a table and flesh out an agreement, but we don’t know precisely what its content will be.
What could happen is that the rank and file of M23 will be integrated into the Congolese army or demobilised. About 100 of them will likely be prosecuted for war crimes by the Congolese criminal court; the Congolese government has already published a list of those people it considers guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Finally, perhaps some of them will be prosecuted by the International Criminal Court at The Hague. That would be only the very top rebels -- maximum half a dozen -- like Bosco Ntaganda, the former head of the M23, who is currently in custody at The Hague.
F24: The chief of the rebels is asking the Congolese government to ensure the reinsertion of former rebels into Congolese society. How would that work in a country as big and decentralised as DRC?
FR: Reinsertion of rebels has been tried in the past, and it has failed. Former rebel groups have been integrated and it has only led to new rebellions. The CNDP was integrated, and that led to the M23, which was basically part of the CNDP under another name. They can try it again, but we all know what it means it will probably lead to new rebellions.
F24: So another rebel group will inevitably replace the M23?
FR: I’m not sure. If the DRC government can re-establish territorial control in the east, that would make a big difference. With the threat of the M23 now gone, Congolese authorities should maybe address other armed groups in the area, especially the FDLR [Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda], a Hutu movement operating on Congolese territory. That would be my first target if I were the Congolese army and the UN. [Editor’s note: Congolese authorities announced their intention to do so on Tuesday afternoon.]
F24: What about the rebels’ allies, Rwanda and Uganda? Where do they stand?
FR: We’re particularly talking about Rwanda here. Uganda has always been only a marginal supporter of the M23. But Rwanda has been a crucial support. Even though they denied it, everyone knew it to be true, especially the US and the UK, key allies. Now that [US Secretary of State] John Kerry and [British Foreign Minister] William Hague told Rwanda to stop supporting M23 “or else”, Rwanda has ceased its support.
It’s a problem for Rwanda, because it will now be seen by other potential rebel movements as a bad ally. Rwanda has supported several rebel movements in the DRC since 1993. If there is a new one coming up, the rebels will have second thoughts about how good an ally Rwanda will be. Moreover, Rwanda might be cut off from exploiting natural resources in the DRC as a result of ditching the rebels

The Benefits of a Sleep Buddy

A quarter of U.S. couples sleep apart. Are they missing important health benefits?

By

Heidi Mitchell

Updated Nov. 4, 2013 7:05 p.m. ET

Is sleeping with a loved one more beneficial to your health than sleeping alone? Heidi Mitchell joins Lunch Break to share what the experts are saying. Photo: Getty Images.

Stolen sheets, snoring and hot flashes are just some of the annoyances that lead a quarter of U.S. couples to sleep apart, according to the National Sleep Foundation. But do the benefits of sharing a bed outweigh such costs? One neurologist, Rachel E. Salas, the assistant medical director for the Johns Hopkins Center for Sleep, shares her expert opinion.

Safety, Warmth

People have slept in the same bed as a family unit for millennia—mainly for warmth and protection from predators and outsiders, says Dr. Salas, who has studied the history of sleep.

"Back in the cave days and even through recent history, many people didn't bathe often or have lots of clothes, so they slept naked. Sleeping together was essential for warmth," she says.

Then as now, she says, it is human to feel safer knowing someone is lying close beside you.

The Science of Spooning

There have been few scientific studies on couples sleeping together. But experts say oxytocin, the so-called love hormone, is released during many types of touching, including cuddling. Increased oxytocin helps the body relax, reduces blood pressure and promotes healing, Dr. Salas says. It also results in emotional feelings related to affection, security and love.

A recent study showed a link between quality of sleep and couples' daytime interactions. For men, the better the sleep a couple got, the smoother their next-day spousal interactions, Dr. Salas says. For women, less negative interaction with their husbands during the day led to more restful sleep that night.

"I can't quote any studies, but from my neurology background, I would suspect that having a person that you are the protector for or who protects you nearby increases the release of neurotransmitters involved with good sleep," Dr. Salas says.

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James Steinberg

Wake-Up Calls

Getting quality sleep enhances a person's quality of life, Dr. Salas says. People with sleep disorders, such as apnea, night terrors or sleepwalking, may benefit from having a bed partner who can observe nighttime behaviors and help with a diagnosis.

But for some people, sleeping together could do more harm than good: "If you wake up often from ambient noises or get hot in your sleep, keeping your bed to yourself may be exactly what you need."

'Humans are Social Creatures'

Sleeping apart is a relatively modern phenomenon and varies across cultures, Dr. Salas says. "My father is from Mexico and my mom is from Texas, and both of them slept with all of their brothers and sisters when they were growing up," she says. If you go to other countries, whole families still sleep together, she says. "Humans are social creatures. We want someone nearby.

How the Government Spied on Me

My complaint to the FBI about a stalker was regarded as an invitation to invade my privacy.

By

Jill Kelley

Nov. 5, 2013 6:46 p.m. ET

It has been a full year since federal agents snooped through the private emails of my husband and me, setting in motion a series of events that ultimately led to the resignations of Central Intelligence Agency Director David Petraeus and Gen. John Allen, the commander of coalition forces in Afghanistan. The anniversary is a somber reminder of the unintended consequences and harsh realities that can result from unrestrained government probing into Americans' personal communications.

More recent revelations of National Security Agency spying suggest that the government's invasion of citizens' privacy is increasingly common. Millions of innocent Americans should be very concerned about Washington's massive surveillance apparatus, which seems to know no bounds.

My family's ordeal began when my husband, Scott, and I were haunted by multiple, threatening email messages from an apparent Internet stalker. Fearing for the safety of our family, as well as the safety of U.S. officials named in the threatening emails, we took the advice of military leaders and reported the messages to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

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Getty Images

We authorized the FBI to look at one threatening email we received, and only that email, so that the FBI could identify the stalker. However, the FBI ignored our request and violated our trust by unlawfully searching our private emails and turning us into the targets of an intrusive investigation without any just cause—all the while without informing us that they had identified the email stalker as Paula Broadwell, who was having an affair with Mr. Petraeus. (I have never understood why she was stalking me and my family. In any event, she was not charged with a crime.)

Adding insult to injury, the FBI then leaked our identities to the media and distorted the contents of the emails it had illegally obtained, throwing my family into a destructive media vortex.

As a result of the government's breach of our privacy and trust, camera crews showed up at our door and camped outside our home to question us about false and misleading information leaked to the media from "unnamed" government sources. Reckless speculation and innuendo about an inappropriate relationship with Gen. Allen spread throughout the news media, sullying my reputation and honor, to the great distress of my family. To this day the government has not apologized for its indefensible conduct.

I hope that my family's story is a case study about the damage that can be caused by the government's electronic overreach. It appears from the NSA's leaks that the government may be trying to collect everything about everyone and everywhere—including America's closest friends and allies—with or without the knowledge of the White House. Unaccountable individuals given free rein to invade people's privacy—and a government that maintains the tools that permit them to do so—are a prescription for a privacy disaster.

With all the current economic, political, social and diplomatic issues facing the country, it is understandable that many Americans seem relatively unconcerned about intrusions on individual privacy. They shouldn't be. The unauthorized search of my family's emails was triggered when we appealed to law enforcement for protection. But who knows what else might set off governmental invasion of privacy—politics or some other improper motivation might suffice. If this could happen to us, it could happen to you.

As painful as my experience has been, it has motivated me to be an advocate against unwarranted spying on personal communications, and to push for new legislation and better enforcement of existing privacy laws. Congress should strengthen the Privacy Act, update the Electronic Communications Privacy Act. Americans' Fourth Amendment protections against unreasonable search and seizures should be extended to personal communications. My husband and I have filed a lawsuit that seeks to hold the federal government accountable for its flagrant violation of our rights.

The country is not safer after reading my emails. The humiliation of and damage to my family should never have occurred. By raising public awareness and holding the government accountable, my husband and I hope we will help protect other innocent families from intrusive government snooping.

The invasion of privacy that my family endured from the federal government is not unique. Nevertheless, it is un-American.

Mrs. Kelley lives in Tampa, Fla

PROBE SPY ALLEGATION TO BRAZIL

Brazil Lawmakers to Probe Spy Allegation

Brazilian lawmakers are set to call the head of the country's intelligence agency to Congress.

By

John Lyons

connect

Nov. 5, 2013 6:14 p.m. ET

SAO PAULO, Brazil—Brazilian lawmakers are set to call the head of the country's intelligence agency to Congress to explain allegations that a Brazilian spy was quietly transferred after being discovered improperly passing intelligence information to a U.S. official, according to a statement by the Congressional Foreign Relations Commission.

The statement late Tuesday said the commission expects to hold a vote Wednesday to call the head of Brazil's Abin spy agency, Roberto Trezza, in for a hearing on the matter.

"More surprising than the discovery of an Abin agent having passed information to U.S. agents, was the decision…to ignore evidence and opt to transfer the agent," Representative Nelson Pellegrino, who is president of the commission, said in the statement.

The planned hearing deepens an ongoing controversy over U.S. spying here. Earlier this year, documents leaked by the former U.S. security contractor Edward Snowden appeared to show that the U.S. was gathering information on Brazilian leaders, including tracking President Dilma Rousseff's communications patterns with other officials. As a result, Ms. Rousseff cancelled a planned visit to the U.S., and Brazilian officials have said spying has cast a shadow over the countries' relations.

In a twist, Brazil also admitted this week that it too had spied on foreign diplomats in Brazil.

Brazil's O Estado newspaper reported Oct. 27 that a Brazilian agent passed information to a U.S. agent who was seeking information about activities along Brazil's remote border with Paraguay and Argentina. The so-called triple frontier is a contraband corridor that has been scrutinized as a potential hub for terrorist financing.

According to the newspaper, the Brazilian agent was uncovered by Brazilian counter intelligence last year. The paper said the alleged U.S. counterpart was attached to the U.S. Embassy in Brazil, until being transferred out of Brazil last year.

U.S. Embassy officials in Brazil didn't immediately return messages seeking comment

WHY REBILLION IN DRC?????

Why the rebellion? The rebels say they started their rebellion because they were not happy with the pay and conditions in the Congolese army. But Congolese government officials and analysts say the mutiny began when the government came under pressure to arrest Ntaganda and hand him over to the ICC. Given the fact that M23 is a ragtag army, and the vast 1136km distance between Goma and Kinshasa, it is highly unlikely that the rebels can topple the government. But they have continued to fight, sometimes emerging victorious after battles with poorly trained and ill-equipped soldiers. Many say the rebellion is fuelled by the presence of vast mineral resources in eastern DR Congo, claiming the rebels want to win control of them. What is the role of neighbouring countries? A ceasefire that was signed earlier this year was brokered by neighbouring countries, including Uganda, which borders DR Congo to the west. Rwanda, accused by DR Congo of backing M23, was also involved. Kigali denies the accusations of backing the rebels but both Kinshasa and UN investigators insist the M23 has received support from the Rwandan military. Many also wonder how Ntaganda managed to cross into Rwanda and get to the US embassy in Kigali if he did not have any help from the Rwandan government. What is the UN peacekeeping mission doing? The United Nation has had peacekeepers in eastern DR Congo for more than a decade, but they have done little to pacify the region. However, in March the Security Council approved the creation of its first-ever “offensive” combat force to “neutralize and disarm” M23 and other Congolese rebels and foreign-armed groups in DR Congo. In August, the head of the United Nations peacekeeping mission ordered peacekeepers to take the "necessary action" to protect civilians and prevent armed groups from advancing in the North Kivu province in response to the renewed fighting.

WHY WARS IN AFRICA IS THEIR DESTINATION?????

Rebel groups in northern Mali agree to unite

Three Tuareg and Arab rebel movements announce merger amid peace talks with the government. Last Modified: 05 Nov 2013 00:24

A Tuareg uprising in northern Mali last year plunged the country into chaos [Reuters]

The three main rebel groups in northern Mali have agreed to merge, creating a united front in an ongoing peace process with the government. A Tuareg uprising in northern Mali last year plunged the country into chaos, leading to a coup in the capital Bamako and the occupation of the north by rebels. Since a French-led invasion in January to drive out the fighters, rebel groups have been scattered and reconciliation with them is one of the greatest challenges for President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. The three groups that merged on Monday were the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), the High Council for the Unity of Azawad (HCUA) and the Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA).  The merger will take effect in 45 days, they said. As part of a peace deal signed with the government in Burkina Faso in June, the three groups said they would disarm. Still, the region remains unstable and last week two French radio journalists were killed by unidentified fighters. The secretary general of MNLA, Bilal Ag Acherif, said his group would cooperate with authorities to find the perpetrators. On Monday, four people were killed in northern Mali after their truck ran over a landmine, according to officials, the latest sign of insecurity in the country. The unrest comes as UN chief Ban Ki-moon touched down in Mali late on Monday to begin a regional tour to highlight the battle against poverty. Ban, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and top officials from the African Union, African Development Bank and European Union will spend Tuesday in Mali before travelling to Niger, Burkina Faso and Chad. Mali has produced four rebellions since independence from France in 1960. Its light-skinned Tuareg people say successive black African governments in the capital have excluded them from power.

Source: Agencies

WHO ARE M23 REBELS IN CONGO?

Who are DR Congo's M23 rebels?

Rebels fighting in country's east have been accused by rights groups of widespread atrocities, including rape. Last Modified: 05 Nov 2013 12:37

MONUSCO, the UN mission in DR Congo, now has the mandate to fight rebels when they threaten civilians [AFP]

Rebel fighters known as M23 have agreed to disarm after suffering a number of defeats against government troops of the Democratic Republic of Congo and UN-backed forces. Who are the M23 rebels? The rebels are named after a peace agreement they signed with the Congolese government on March 23, 2009 when they were fighting as part of a group calling itself the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP). Many CNDP fighters were integrated into the Congolese army, officially known by its French initials FARDC. The rebels belong to the minority Tutsi ethnic group and have close ties to the Tutsi in neighbouring Rwanda. Their rebellion began in April 2012 when they mutinied. At that time, the CNDP was led by Bosco Ntaganda who is now at The Hague in the Netherlands where he is awaiting trial by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the north east of the country from 2002 to 2003. The group's senior leaders include Bishop Jean-Marie Runiga Lugerero who serves as its president. General Sultani Makenga heads the movement's military wing. International human rights groups say M23 fighters have been responsible for widespread war crimes, including summary executions, rapes, and the forced recruitment of children. In March 2013, following infighting between two M23 factions, Ntaganda turned himself in to the United States embassy in Rwanda and was extradited to The Hague. Why the rebellion? The rebels say they started their rebellion because they were not happy with the pay and conditions in the Congolese army. But Congolese government officials and analysts say the mutiny began when the government came under pressure to arrest Ntaganda and hand him over to the ICC. Given the fact that M23 is a ragtag army, and the vast 1136km distance between Goma and Kinshasa, it is highly unlikely that the rebels can topple the government. But they have continued to fight, sometimes emerging victorious after battles with poorly trained and ill-equipped soldiers. Many say the rebellion is fuelled by the presence of vast mineral resources in eastern DR Congo, claiming the rebels want to win control of them. What is the role of neighbouring countries? A ceasefire that was signed earlier this year was brokered by neighbouring countries, including Uganda, which borders DR Congo to the west. Rwanda, accused by DR Congo of backing M23, was also involved. Kigali denies the accusations of backing the rebels but both Kinshasa and UN investigators insist the M23 has received support from the Rwandan military. Many also wonder how Ntaganda managed to cross into Rwanda and get to the US embassy in Kigali if he did not have any help from the Rwandan government. What is the UN peacekeeping mission doing? The United Nation has had peacekeepers in eastern DR Congo for more than a decade, but they have done little to pacify the region. However, in March the Security Council approved the creation of its first-ever “offensive” combat force to “neutralize and disarm” M23 and other Congolese rebels and foreign-armed groups in DR Congo. In August, the head of the United Nations peacekeeping mission ordered peacekeepers to take the "necessary action" to protect civilians and prevent armed groups from advancing in the North Kivu province in response to the renewed fighting.

Source: Al Jazeera

TANZANIAN ARMIES DESTROYS M23 NOW IN CONGO

 Africans claim ownership of the conflict.

Another development worth mentioning is that African countries and multilateral institutions have been quite eager to play a role in the process of solving this conflict. Or at least preventing it from developing into an open regional war. Not only did they confront the traditional protagonists, they also confronted each other. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (Kenya, the DRC and its nine immediate neighbours) worked intensively to keep the conflict within its existing limits, the SADC countries tried to get actively involved (Malawi, South Africa and Tanzania have sent troops for the FIB), the African Union also sought its own visibility and leadership.
It is an interesting development and it is not impossible that the result will be the power balance between and within African regions might be reformulated.  The first signs of redrawing the map of African multilateral institutions are already visible: Tanzania’s role in the FIB led to tensions with Rwanda which put a lot of pressure on the East African Community. Rwanda founded the Coalition of the Willing with Uganda and Kenya, which motivated Tanzania (member of ICGLR, EAC as well as SADC) to say that it might consider to withdrawing from the EAC.

ARE WE WAITING FOR M24???OR ITS OVER???

Congo: Waiting for M24 or a real window of opportunity? – By Kris Berwouts

Posted on November 5, 2013 by AfricanArgumentsEditor

Eastern Congo and North Kivu in particular, are currently going through an intense and decisive period. In less than a week, the Congolese army (FARDC) has re-conquered the towns until recently controlled by M23.
The fighting around Goma broke out on Friday October 25^th a few days after the newest round of negotiations between M23 and the Congolese government had broken down hours before it seemed both parties were close to signing an agreement. The talks finally collapsed after the government refused to grant amnesty to the M23 leadership.
New clashes broke out and the FARDC successively took Kibumba, Kiwanja, Rutshuru, and the military camps of Rumangabo and Bunagana, bordering Uganda and Rwanda. This victory, which appeared unlikely only weeks ago, was achieved by the Congolese army, backed up by the United Nations Force Intervention Brigade (FIB). On African Defense Review, Darren Olivier provides an interesting analysis of the military and logistical aspects of the attack.
Whilst I write this piece, government forces are attacking the last areas held by the M23 rebel group in the forested hills in the east. The political structure of M23 declared the movement wants to lay down its arms, but that does not yet seem the case for the military wing.
Will this put an end to what appears to be an endless cycle of conflict in eastern Congo? Most probably not. But it might remove M23 – the youngest rebel movement led by Congolese Tutsi, designed, supported and used by Rwanda – from the map. And that would mean, as Jason Stearns points out on Congo Siasa, that for the first time since 1996 “an armed group allied to Rwanda is not present in the eastern Congo.”
The end of a misadventure
This is not the place, nor the time, to tell the entire story of M23’s rise and fall, but a quick summary is useful.
The genesis of the movement goes back to January 2012, when Bosco Ntaganda understood that the Congolese government was about to drop him. There had been an International Criminal Court warrant on Bosco for many years and after the 2011 elections there was a lot of pressure on Kabila to deliver him as a sign of good will. Kinshasa wanted to capitalize on this arrest to replace Bosco with a more loyal commander, thus dismantling (at least partially) the ‘army within an army’ that the CNDP had remained since it was integrated in to the FARDC in 2009.
Bosco returned to the maquis and was followed by a group of officers, mostly people with a CNPD background, and since 2009, FARDC commanders. But contrary to earlier rebel movements of this kind, M23’s capacity to mobilize and recruit people remained low. M23 was the product of discontent in the ranks of the Tutsi elite in North Kivu but never managed to extend beyond that. The Banyamulenge (Tutsi from South Kivu) kept their distance from M23 and managed to remain outside the conflict. The same is true for the large Hutu community of North Kivu. Due to their limited support base within Kivu’s Kinyarwanda-speaking community, M23 lacked the clout to start a proper war, despite the support Rwanda provided (documented by the UN Group of Experts). It looked like M23’s main reason for existing was to obtain, through negotiations, better positions within the army and the government.
For months their capacity to inflict harm was limited to a small area in Rutshuru, but in November, quite unexpectedly, they took Goma.  They kept it for nearly 2 weeks, and after they moving out, two parallel processes started. The first one, commonly known as the Kampala negotiations, led to absolutely nothing. The second was when international reaction crystalized into the Framework Agreement of Addis Abeba in February 2013.
The most immediate consequence of the agreement was that it announced the deployment of a UN Force Intervention Brigade (FIB), composed of Malawian, South African and Tanzanian soldiers.  This brigade would “neutralize and disarm [M23], as well as other Congolese rebels and foreign armed groups in strife-riven eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.” And most of all, it would fundamentally change the military power balance in the field. Even after M23 had left Goma, it remained the most coherent, most organized and best performing military actor in the Kivus. This was less a result of its own strength, and more a consequence of the FARDC’s weakness. The announcement of the brigade’s arrival created a lot of animosity in the field.
But by the time the brigade arrived, M23 had weakened itself, for two reasons. First, the internal tensions within M23, more precisely between Sultani Makenga, the commander in chief of the rebellion (close to Nkunda), and Bosco, burst out into open confrontations. On top of the traditional cleavages between the two camps (based on clans within the Tutsi community and regional dissension between Masisi and Rutshuru) was the strategic question of how to position the movement against the background of the Framework Agreement and other negotiations. In March 2013, it was clear that Makenga was much more eager than Bosco to finalise the negotiations with the government and come to some sort of integration. Makenga won, Bosco fled to The Hague. 200 soldiers were killed in the fighting; many more were wounded or surrendered. The M23 officers reunited around Makenga, but the movement was much weaker than before.
The second and most important reason for M23’s decline was the fact that Rwanda faced a more critical attitude from its most loyal international partners. The reaction of countries such as the UK, US, Germany, Sweden and Holland went much further than had before, and certainly much further than Rwanda had anticipated. Measures were not only announced but also taken, and Rwanda had to be much more discrete and careful in its support. M23 immediately felt the difference.
The result is that M23 is today verging on military disappearance. It tried several times in recent weeks, by grenades and mortar fire on both Goma and Gisenyi, to create a context where Rwanda would cross the border and intervene directly in support. Today, the Rwandan army is at its highest state of alert on the border. But, although the possibility of Rwandan assistance still exists, it isn’t very likely.
Are we really approaching the end of the M23 misadventure? It looks like it. Over the past 18 months nobody has won. Not Congo, which was once more near to imploding, during and after Goma’s fall. Rwanda neither, which lost a lot of its traditional support in Europe and the USA (and amongst the population of eastern Congo). The people welcome what they consider to be a military victory, but they are, at the same time, afraid that this might only be a short breather in an endless cycle of violence.
But let us try to identify the new elements in recent developments – indications that this is not just another chapter in the same old story.
Not the same old story 1: The Congolese army, rising from the ashes?
The Congolese army has gone through a metamorphosis in recent months. For many years, the FARDC was considered to be a heterogeneous, undisciplined, badly trained amalgam of different militias. Whenever there was a problem of armed bandits on the loose, efforts were made to resolve it by “integrating” them into the “regular” army, and giving the command to the one who has done most to violate human rights.
There were many reasons why the unification of the army did not succeed. Firstly, logistics: Regrouping the militias, registering each soldier individually, training them, re-shuffling them and deploying them into new units, all require the use of barracks. But there are none, or at least very few.
There is also the matter of natural resources. A large number of armed groups (whether or not they have been integrated into the national army) only survive economically because they have taken possession of a mine, or some commercial concern, etc. and they are reluctant to abandon their possession. Then there was the question of transparency and good management, or rather the absence thereof. In fact the less clear the army’s organisational structure, the greater opportunities there are for those at the head of it to embezzle large sums of money.
The many international efforts to assist the Congolese authorities in setting up a defense apparatus capable of guaranteeing the security of the Congolese people had a disappointing impact. This was acknowledged in a very critical report from the European Court of Auditors in September 2013.
The result was a phantom army which was more a part of the problem than its solution. It was systematically listed among the most serious violators of human rights. In short, it was an army that was dangerous for everybody except the enemy.
This has, however, changed recently, becoming visible from July onwards. It goes back to the replacement of General Gabriel Amisi aka ‘Tango Four’ by General François Olengha as Chief of staff of the army’s land forces in November 2012. In February 2013, 115 commanding officers from Ituri, South and North Kivu were called back to Kinshasa on the pretext of a military seminar and kept there. All of them were considered to be much more involved in business activities around the army than in military operations. They were also suspected of lacking loyalty to the national cause. Their involvement in different local commercial, ethnic and other networks made it impossible to provide effective leadership. The replacement of General Mayala by General Bahuma as Commander of the military region that covers North Kivu was also very important.
Their disappearance from the field improved a lot of practical issues: the logistics became better organized, uniforms, arms and ammunition were available where and when they were needed and salaries were paid. The first successes gave a boost to the army and created a wave of solidarity towards the army among the population, something which was previously unheard of. Contrary to Amisi’s period of command, the battalions formed by the Belgians and the South Africans were deployed on the front line and made a significant difference – providing evidence that the international efforts to reinforce the army were not all that bad.
A Congolese army that can carry out successful operations is an important development, but a successful reform of the security sector is something else.  The challenge will be to consolidate it in North Kivu and to extend it to the rest of the country. The performance of the FARDC might not be enough to give the country a disciplined and effective army, but it is a good start.
Not the same old story 2: Monusco
A similar metamorphosis was witnessed within Monusco. Since its deployment, the UN peacekeeping mission never gave the impression that it could fulfill its mission and protect the Congolese people. The Blue Helmets were considered as non-proactive, with a rather vague role, often absent at the time and place of the action, with too little coordination between civil and military structures, too distant from the Congolese people and heartily loathed by them.
This also changed as part of the Framework Agreement.  The arrival of the FIB and the replacement of Roger Meece by the German diplomat Martin Kobler made a big difference. Kobler has made a big effort to be close to the field and accessible to the Congolese population. He is also a much better communicator than his recent predecessors.
Of course these changes wouldn’t have been possible without the Security Council’s decision on March 28^th 2013 to renew and extend Monusco’s mandate to make the Framework Agreement operational.

Not the same old story 3: Rwanda closely monitored by its allies
It is clear that M23’s military force was diminished by the prompt action of the international community, which reacted faster and sharper than usual. Rwanda was heavily criticized by some of its most loyal partners. In Washington, London, The Hague, Berlin and Stockholm, immediate measures were taken to cut or suspend parts of their bilateral support. Rwanda overplayed its hand in its M23 gamble. Even after most of its partners lifted or alleviated the measures, it was absolutely clear that its future moves and actions would be looked upon with great suspicion. The traditional partners of Rwanda went way beyond its worst fears.
Not the same old story 4: Africans claim ownership of the conflict
Another development worth mentioning is that African countries and multilateral institutions have been quite eager to play a role in the process of solving this conflict. Or at least preventing it from developing into an open regional war. Not only did they confront the traditional protagonists, they also confronted each other. The International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (Kenya, the DRC and its nine immediate neighbours) worked intensively to keep the conflict within its existing limits, the SADC countries tried to get actively involved (Malawi, South Africa and Tanzania have sent troops for the FIB), the African Union also sought its own visibility and leadership.
It is an interesting development and it is not impossible that the result will be the power balance between and within African regions might be reformulated.  The first signs of redrawing the map of African multilateral institutions are already visible: Tanzania’s role in the FIB led to tensions with Rwanda which put a lot of pressure on the East African Community. Rwanda founded the Coalition of the Willing with Uganda and Kenya, which motivated Tanzania (member of ICGLR, EAC as well as SADC) to say that it might consider to withdrawing from the EAC.
A window of opportunity?
You can’t summarise an event whilst still in the middle of it.  Fighting has remained intense during the last few days, but at the very moment I am finalising this text it seems that M23’s last bastions have been taken and the rebels have given up their insurgency – declaring that they now want to achieve their goals through purely political means. It is not yet clear what this means for the last round of negotiations in Kampala.
But if the violence around M23 comes to an end, progress will have to be made in other areas – for example on other armed groups. The FIB did not come for M23 alone; their Terms of Reference stipulate they are there to disarm all armed groups. Who will be next? It has been suggested that one of the reasons Rwanda kept quiet in the last weeks is due to guarantees it has had that the FDLR is next on the list.
Congo will have to do the rest of the homework it committed itself to in Addis Ababa:  reforming the security sector and government institutions, consolidate the state authority in the east and prevent  armed groups from destabilizing neighbouring countries, strengthening the agenda of reconciliation, tolerance and democratization, to make progress in the decentralization process. Such a shopping list does not appear to be very concrete.
If the violence in the east stops or even decreases, the focus of attention will be brought back on to the political scene – afterall, the M23 misadventure started after controversial elections. There is a pervasive climate of distrust, not only between majority and opposition, but also internally within the majority and the opposition. Kabila made an interesting strategic move going forward: he appointed Augustin Matata Ponyo as Prime Minister. Matata Ponyo had worked in the international financial world and as Congo’s Minister of Finance; he had been responsible for the macroeconomic successes in the previous legislature. His profile is more technocratic than political. Matata started to reform the administration, injecting bits of good governance and installing mechanisms of control which go against the interests of those who controlled the ship of the state before him.
Just after M23 left Goma, Kabila announced a process to increase national cohesion.  Everyone had their own understanding of what a process of increasing national cohesion could or should look like, or what it should even be called. Eventually des concertations nationales were organised in September and October 2013 and a list of recommendations were adopted. Kabila announced a new government, but it is not clear yet what it will look like or who will lead it.
Some people fear that the PPRD barons and party apparatchiks around Secretary-General Boshab see this as an excellent occasion to get rid of Prime Minister Matata Ponyo. They wouldn’t be at all averse to sending ‘le petit’ into the desert as a scapegoat. We can’t exclude that a government reshuffle will be presented as a reform, while in reality it is the opposite – the restoration of the previous, pre-Matata regime, with negative consequences for real reform.
Kris Berwouts has, over the last 25 years, worked for a number of different Belgian and international NGOs focused on building peace, reconciliation, security and democratic processes. Until recently, he was the Director of EurAc, the network of European NGOs working for advocacy on Central Africa. He now works as an independent expert on Central Africa.

BREAKING NEWSSSS!!!!!TOTAL VICTORY OVER M23 REBELS...DRC announces

Latest update: 05/11/2013

DR Congo announces 'total victory' over M23 rebels

© AFP

M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo said Tuesday they would end their insurgency, hours after the country's communications minister declared "total victory" over the rebellion following a final government offensive on their strongholds.

By News Wires (text)

 

The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo announced Tuesday that it had achieved "total victory" over M23 rebels, but the army declined to give immediate confirmation.
"The last elements of the M23 have abandoned their positions in Runyonyi and Chanzu under pressure from FARDC (government forces) who have just entered there," said the country's communications minister and government spokesman in a text message received by AFP in Kiwanja, a town near the fighting.
He was referring to two hilltop positions about 80 kilometres (50 miles) north of regional capital Goma, where dozens of rebels had dug in.
Contacted by AFP, General Lucien Bahuma, army commander in Nord Kivu province, was more cautious, saying: "I cannot confirm that for the moment."
Another Congolese army officer said he heard that "the M23 had scarpered".
"They burned 42 vehicles and their munitions depots, they took off in all directions, each for himself and God for all," he said, adding that "the fighting had lasted all night".
On Monday the UN special force in eastern DR Congo joined in direct combat with the besieged M23 rebels, throwing its weight behind the Congolese army's crushing assault launched late last month in a bid to finally end the rebellion.
(AFP

M23 HAVE SURRENDERED OR NOT??????

M23's decline raises hopes of DR Congo peace By Moses Rono BBC Africa security correspondent

 

These children are now playing on a tank previously used by the rebels

Continue reading the main story

DR Congo Seeks Democracy

The imminent defeat of DR Congo's M23 rebels is the result of shifting military and political dynamics that are presenting the most concrete prospects of peace in the vast, unstable central African nation for many years.

M23 rebels in the east of the country have suffered major military defeats in the past week, forcing their political leader Bertrand Bisimwa to declare a ceasefire and seek a return to peace talks in Uganda.
A defeat would send an intimidating message to at least 10 other rebel groups operating in the area, raising hopes that a lasting peace for the mineral-rich nation may be in sight after two decades of conflict.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

The M23 was largely left to its own devices - the Rwandans just wouldn't pick up their phone calls”

Jason Stearns Congo analyst

"M23 has only been the most active group in the east. Its defeat does not mean instant peace. It is early days," Stephanie Wolters of the South African-based Institute of Security Studies said.

To understand the tenuous hope of possibly ending DR Congo's conflict, it is important to look at how M23 rebels were recently routed from its main bases by the Congolese army, a force generally known for its indiscipline, inefficiency and corruption.
When M23 took control of Goma - the main city in the east with a population of one million - in November 2012, it embarrassed the government and put pressure on the international community to act after human rights violations emerged.
President Joseph Kabila made changes to the military hierarchy and troops fighting in the east.
In a sign that the changes might have started working, no reports of human rights violations blamed on the Congolese army have recently emerged, as has happened during previous operations.

These refugees in Ntamugenga are among thousands displaced by fighting

In March this year, the UN approved a new mission of 3,000 African soldiers with a mandate to fight the rebels. With the operational support of the existing UN Mission in DR Congo (Monusco), the new forces have used helicopters to target the rebels, allowing the army to advance on the frontline.

Continue reading the main story

Congo and Rwanda: Neighbours from hell

• April-June 1994: Genocide of Tutsis in Rwanda
• June 1994: Paul Kagame's Tutsi rebels take power in Rwanda, Hutus flee into Zaire (DR Congo)
• Rwanda's army enters eastern Zaire to pursue Hutu fighters
• 1997: Laurent Kabila's AFDL, backed by Rwanda, takes power in Kinshasa
• 1998: Rwanda accuses Kabila of not acting against Hutu rebels and tries to topple him, sparking five years of conflict
• 2003: War officially ends but Hutu and Tutsi militias continue to clash in eastern DR Congo
• 2008: Tutsi-led CNDP rebels take up arms, causing thousands to flee
• 2009: Rwanda and DR Congo agree peace deal and CNDP integrated into Congolese army
• 2012: Former CNDP rebels, now called M23, take up arms. Rwanda denies backing them
• 2013: US withdraws military aid to Rwanda, M23 on verge of defeat

It is expected that the UN mission will soon have drones for surveillance, a development that will offer insight into rebel movements and arms supplies.

UN investigators have accused Rwanda and Uganda of supporting the M23. Both deny this. In what it says is a sign of goodwill that it wants a resolution to the conflict, Kampala has been hosting talks between Kinshasa and the M23.
Jason Stearns wrote on his Congo Siasa blog that the absence of support from Rwanda to the rebels appeared to have tipped the scales.
"The M23 was largely left to its own devices - the Rwandans just wouldn't pick up their phone calls," he posted, quoting an M23 leader.
Ola Bello of the Cape Town-based South African Institute of International Affairs contends that for a long time, US military aid gave Rwanda "military and diplomatic carte blanche" in the regional conflict.
The US has since withdrawn that military support, accusing Kigali of backing the M23 rebels, believed to use child soldiers.
"This… shift in the regional diplomatic balance of forces has resulted in the Rwandan government's move to significantly scale back both its covert and overt support to the M23," Mr Bello said.
It is, however, too soon to say M23 has been permanently pacified.

A new UN intervention brigade has helped the army advance against the M23

For years, Kinshasa has failed to deal with rebellions in the east in any concerted way, partly because of the involvement of foreign actors.
Kigali has said in the past it has sent its troops to DR Congo specifically to hunt down the FDLR - a Hutu rebel group linked to Rwanda genocide and which opposes Tutsi influence in the region.
Unless DR Congo moves to deal with the FDLR, there is nothing to suggest that Rwanda would not be sucked back into the conflict, even if it stood back on this occasion.
It has been alleged that DR Congo's army has worked with the FDLR to fight the M23.
A comprehensive political process that seeks to address a series of issues beyond the armed insurgencies may save DR Congo.
Ms Wolters said: "For years, Kinshasa has lacked the political will to really deal with the political problems for many different reasons. It is now up to them to decide what they want to do with the latest victory."
Mr Bello said it was time that DR Congo acknowledged the significance of its neighbours in seeking solutions to the conflict in the east.
"The M23's defeat… creates the political space to include all the conflict elements [economic motives especially] into a fulsome process of diplomatic negotiation between the DR Congo and its eastern neighbours and other conflict parties," he said.
For the international community, the involvement of UN troops in direct combat may offer a model to reform peacekeeping missions to better protect civilians caught up in unrest and actively contribute to ending wars

DRUG TRAFFICKING PATTERNS TO and FROM EAST AFRICA

Drug Trafficking Patterns to and from Eastern Africa

In the period 1995-2006, reported seizures of heroin, cannabis and cocaine in the region covered by UNODC Eastern Africaare comparatively few and do not reflect the extent of trafficking, availability and growing abuse in the region. The region is attractive to international drug trafficking syndicates as they are quick to exploit non-existent or ineffective border (land, sea and air) controls, limited cross border and regional cooperation as well as serious deficiencies in the criminal justice systems. Hence, the low seizure figures are more an indication that few resources are allocated to drug control and that international border controls are weak than a sign that no drugs are being trafficked through the region.

FIGURE (1) MAJOR DRUG TRANSIT ROUTES IN THE East REGION

 
The region covered by UNODC Eastern Africa is accessible by sea to heroin and cannabis resin producer countries in South West and South East Asia through the ports in Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya and Tanzania. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Somalia, currently in the process of establishing a central authority, is host to widespread illegal transactions, including drug and arms trafficking. There are two important international airports in the region, servicing the capitals' of Ethiopia and Kenya, which are used as transit points for drugs. Both airports have connections between West Africa and the heroin‑producing countries in South West and South East Asia. There is also an increasing use of postal and courier services for cocaine, heroin and hashish.
A review of drug seizures from 1998 to date indicates an increase in the trafficking of heroin to eastern African countries from Pakistan, Thailand and India. Increased seizures of heroin with Nigerian connections bound for Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya through Ethiopia have been noted as well. Seizures and arrest statistics show that more Tanzanians and Mozambicans are becoming involved in the trafficking of heroin from Pakistan and Iran.

West African syndicates, with their experience in cannabis and heroin smuggling, are actively networking in Latin America, and are responsible for the emergence of cocaine trafficking and abuse in eastern Africa. As shown in graph (3), although the volume of cocaine seized in Africa is still relatively small, the situation is changing as trafficking groups extend their highly-organised networks. In most countries in the ROEA region it is possible to purchase pharmaceutical products on demand without presenting a valid prescription. Many of these products, sometimes imported without authorization, are sold by hawkers in street-markets.

Unfortunately, the situation has been worsening in the last 10‑15 years. In the majority of the countries in the UNODC Eastern Africa region, control and monitoring of the national drug supply and distribution channels, including precursors, are inefficient. This results not only in the ineffective control of pharmaceutical products, but also in the circulation of counterfeit medicines. Together these pose serious health and socio‑economic problems, they undermine law enforcement activities and confidence in public health services.

The emergence of Mandrax in the region has gone hand in hand with the diversion of licit drugs and essential chemical precursors into the illicit market. The control of essential chemical precursors that are either being trafficked through the UNODC Eastern Africaregion to countries producing cocaine and heroin or used in the illegal production of Mandrax, is an important part of the battle against drugs in the region. It is feared that illegal trafficking, importation and use will continue as long as there are no effective control mechanisms in the countries of the region.

COMPANIES THAT LEAD FOR CORRUPTION IN THE WORLD

World Bank's Corrupt Companies Blacklist Dominated By Canada

The Huffington Post Canada  |  Posted: 09/18/2013 

Canada has the dubious honour of being home to the largest number of firms on a World Bank blacklist of corrupt companies.
But virtually all of that can be attributed to one Canadian company -- SNC Lavalin, the construction and engineering giant whose name is becoming a paragon of Canadian corruption.
Of the more than 600 companies now listed as barred from doing business with the World Bank over corruption, 117 are Canadian, the most of any one country. And of those, 115 represent SNC-Lavalin and its subsidiaries, the Financial Post reports.
Among the listed SNC subsidiaries are Candu Energy, which designs CANDU nuclear reactors, and Evergreen Rapid Transit Holdings, the SNC-Lavalin company established to build Vancouver's new Sky Train line.
The World Bank’s head of corruption investigations, James David Fielder, told the paper the SNC subsidiaries’ inclusion was due to “a World Bank investigation relating to the Padma Bridge project in Bangladesh where World Bank investigators closely cooperated with the Royal Canadian Mounted Police in an effort to promote collective action against corruption.”
As if on cue, the RCMP on Wednesday announced charges against former SNC executive Kevin Wallace, in conjunction with the probe into the Padma Bridge project.
Wallace was charged with bribery of a foreign official under the Corruption of Foreign Public Officials Act.

“In some countries, bribes are still accepted as a necessary part of doing business. However, bribery raises serious moral and political concerns, undermines good governance and sustainable economic development, and distorts the conditions of international competition,” the RCMP said in a statement.
The World Bank is in the midst of a crackdown on corrupt companies. It expanded its list by some 250 names in the first seven months of this year alone, the South China Morning Post reports.
“We’re not a global policeman, but what we can do is facilitate the global conversation against corruption,” Stephen Zimmerman, director of operations at the bank’s integrity division, told the Financial Times.
After Canada’s 117 listed companies, the U.S. is in second place, with 46 listed. That’s followed by Indonesia (43 firms) and Britain (40 firms).
Bangladesh is not the only place where SNC-Lavalin is alleged to have engaged in bribery.
The company’s former CEO, Pierre Duhaime, was arrested last year on corruption charges related to $56 million in “questionable payments” believed linked to some of the company’s overseas operations. Duhaime was arrested again earlier this year in connection with allegations of corruption surrounding a contract to build a new facility for the McGill University Health Centre (MUHC) in Montreal.
SNC-Lavalin’s links to the former Gadhafi regime in Libya are said to have been so close that the company offered one of the dictator’s sons a vice-president position in 2008, according to news reports.
SNC-Lavalin is also alleged to have been engaged in corrupt practices in Algeria.

COUNTRY WITH BEST EDUCATION SYSTEM IN THE WORLD

FINLAND Education SYSTEM

African Countries of the Future 2013/14

Jacqueline Walls | 09/08/2013

South Africa has been crowned as the African Country of the Future for 2013/14 by fDi Magazine, with Morocco in second position and Mauritius in third. New entries into the top 10 include Nigeria and Botswana. Jacqueline Walls reports.

One of the economic powerhouses of the African continent, South Africa has been named fDi Magazine’s African Country of the Future 2013/14. A worthy winner, South Africa has consistently outperformed its African neighbours in FDI attraction since fDi Markets records began in 2003. Figures for 2012 build upon South Africa’s historical prominence as an FDI destination with the country attracting about one-fifth of all investments into the continent – more than double its closest African rival, Morocco. In 2012, FDI into South Africa amounted to $4.6bn-worth of capital investment and the creation of almost 14,000 jobs.

In the five years or so since the financial crisis made its impact felt, global FDI remains 20% lower than figures recorded in 2008. Any hints of global recovery in FDI in 2010 and 2011 have been overshadowed by the 14.3% decline in 2012. In the context of this decline, the number of investments into the African continent fell to a lesser extent than any other world regions, down 7.9% in 2012. However figures for the first five months of 2013 signal that FDI into Africa is falling at about the same rate as global averages, down 27% compared to 28% globally.
Unrest, corruption and severe income disparities persist in Africa, though an emerging middle class with increased disposable income, a marked improvement in governance and the availability of natural resources present an attractive opportunity for investors. According to a recent report by the African Development Bank, Africa’s economy is growing faster than any other continent. Of the 54 African countries, 26 have now achieved middle-income status, with some countries, such as South Africa, Morocco and Mauritius, significantly outperforming the likes of Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

South Africa's resilience
South Africa claimed the title of fDi’s African Country of the Future 2013/14 by performing well across most categories, obtaining a top three position for Economic Potential, Infrastructure and Business Friendliness. Its attractiveness to investors is evident in its recent FDI performance, where the country defied the global trend with 2011 and 2012 figures surpassing its pre-crisis 2008 statistics. Despite a slight decline of 3.9% in 2012, South Africa increased its market share of global FDI, which further increased in the first five months of 2013 as the country attracted 1.37% of global greenfield investment projects. According to fDi Markets, South Africa now ranks as the 16th top FDI destination country in the world.
South Africa’s largest city, Johannesburg, was the top destination for FDI into Africa and is one of only five African cities that attracted more investments in the first five months of 2013 compared to the same period of 2012. South Africa ranked third behind the US and the UK as a top source market for the African continent in 2012, accounting for 9.2% of FDI projects.
In 2010, South Africa became the ‘S’ of the BRICS – five major emerging national economies made up by Brazil, Russia, India and China. While FDI into South Africa fell 3.9% in 2012, this was the lowest recorded decline of the BRICS grouping which, on average, experienced a 20.7% decline in FDI. In its submission for fDi’s African Countries of the Future 2013/14, Trade and Investment South Africa (TISA) stresses the importance of the country's attachments to its BRICS partners. “South Africa’s participation in the BRICS grouping is significant… as it provides important opportunities to build South Africa’s domestic manufacturing base, enhance value-added exports, promote technology sharing, support small business development and expand trade and investment opportunities,” says TISA.
Familiar look at the top
South Africa, Morocco and Mauritius have maintained their top three positions in the ranking, though Morocco has been ousted from the top spot in part due to its 17% FDI decline in 2012. Home to the Tangier Free Zone (ranked sixth in fDi’s Global Free Zones of the Future 2012/13), Morocco still provides a healthy FDI story, attracting 8.3% of all investments into Africa last year. The country ranked second in the Infrastructure category and joint top for FDI Strategy.
Egypt ranks fourth in fDi’s African Countries of the Future 2013/14 table. However, as these results went to press, turmoil erupted in the country following the ousting of its president, Mohammed Morsi. As fDi Magazine’s African Countries of the Future ranking is primarily based on the analysis of FDI data, it is important to note that prior to the current political situation, the country had witnessed a 20% increase in inward investment in 2012.
Kenya has climbed the overall rankings, moving from 10th in the 2011/12 ranking to fifth position this year. Since 2008, FDI into the country more than doubled and the latest figures from fDi Markets show that Kenya has already attracted 9.43% of inward investment into Africa in the first five months of 2013. Currently, Kenya ranks second behind South Africa as the top FDI destination in 2013. Kenya continues to diversify its economy and the widely adopted use of M-Pesa mobile payment has opened the door to many new investment opportunities. Nigeria and Botswana are the new entrants in the top 10, ranking in seventh and eighth place, respectively.
Places of potential
South Africa is top of the Economic Potential table. The country's GDP stands at more than $5.8bn and it is the largest economy in Africa. South Africa has attracted more R&D investments than other African country and accounts for the largest number of patents registered in the continent. Exports from the country increased 24% in 2011 whereas imports increased 18% when compared to 2010 figures, and both were more than 13% higher than 2008 levels.
Nigeria comes in second behind South Africa in the Economic Potential category. Despite major issues such as corruption, security and infrastructure inadequacies blighting the country in recent years, Nigeria has seen its GDP almost treble since the turn of the century. According to the Nigerian Investment Promotion Commission’s submission for fDi’s African Countries of the Future, the Nigerian government is keenly aware that major issues need to be tackled in order for the country to unlock its potential. To address this, it says the government has “implemented various improvement measures in order to reach its goal of being one of the world's 20 largest economies by 2020.”
Following a slight decline in FDI in 2009/10, investments into Nigeria increased 41% in 2011 and a further 20% in 2012. The oil industry is a dominant feature of the Nigerian economy, though the communications sector is also a strong area of growth. According to fDi Markets, FDI in the communications sector accounted for one-quarter of all investments in the country in 2012, and as penetration levels remain relatively low in this large and growing consumer market, this sector continues to offer huge opportunities to existing and new players alike.
A new entrant into the top 10 for Economic Potential, Kenya ranked third thanks largely to its strong performance in FDI attraction. Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, was the fastest growing African city for FDI between 2009 and 2012 and was second only to Johannesburg as a destination for FDI in 2012. Many initiatives are currently being developed to drive the Kenyan economy and in turn encourage investors into the country. In its submission for fDi’s African Countries of the Future, KenInvest says: “The development of the national investment policy… is aimed at streamlining the investment promotion and facilitation process in Kenya to make it simpler. Full implementation of the… new constitution is on its own expected to increase the level of foreign participation in the country”.
A well-administered country by regional standards, Ghana ranks fourth in the Economic Potential category of fDi’s African Countries of the Future 2013/14. In the past few years, Ghana has attracted its largest ever FDI project following the discovery of major offshore oil reserves in 2007. In July 2009, South African company New Alpha Refinery announced plans to construct a new $6bn oil refinery in Accra in what will be the largest refinery in west Africa. With production set to begin in 2015, the refinery should initially produce 200,000 barrels of oil per day with a view to eventually doubling capacity.
Labour and costs
Mauritius tops the table in Africa when it comes to the Labour Environment category. With a reputation for political and social stability, Mauritius is recognised as a middle-income country with a greater degree of equality compared with other African nations. High-end FDI has been a boon to Mauritius, with more than half of all inward investment involved in the business and financial services sectors. On its own, Mauritius's financial services sector accounts for 13% of the country's GDP and directly employs more than 15,000 highly skilled professionals.
Tunisia ranks second in the Labour Environment category. Currently undergoing great social and political change, Tunisia has one of the top tertiary education enrolment rates in Africa, combined with a comparatively high life expectancy. Being home to eight of Africa’s top 200 universities has helped Egypt place in third, while Algeria and Libya complete the top five.
Madagascar is the leading African country in the Cost Effectiveness category. Low wages combined with low property costs have helped Madagascar attract investors involved in manufacturing and extraction, with these activities accounting for 40% of investments on the island. One of the world's poorest countries, Mauritania is in second place in this ranking. Although rich in natural reserves, the country has been unable to capitalise on its discovery of oil in 2001.
Infrastructure issues
Despite the continent experiencing some economic growth, Africa's infrastructure remains a major constraint that hinders its ability to unlock its vast human and economic potential. Africa only invests 4% of its collective GDP in its infrastructure.
Egypt offers one of the more advanced infrastructure set-ups in Africa, and as such is awarded the top spot in our Infrastructure category. Prior to the unrest that the country is currently experiencing, Egypt had a thriving tourist industry which accounted for more than 10% of its economic output. Airports in Egypt offer connections to more than 100 international destinations, and the country is also home to a number of significant ports due to its strategic location between Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Egypt also has one of the highest rates of internet usage in Africa.
Morocco is another African country with a relatively well developed infrastructure system. Moroccan airports are connected to more than 80 international destinations and its largest city, Casablanca, is home to the second largest port in Africa. Future infrastructure projects for Morocco include a $35bn investment in its rail networks as well as the development of the world’s largest solar power plant, which commenced construction in May 2013.
South Africa is in third place in the Infrastructure category. The South African government has set out plans to invest $92bn in its infrastructure over the next three years. The biggest chunk of the investment will come from the South African electricity utility company Eskom, and incorporates plans for two new power stations, Medupi and Kusile, which are expected to start producing electricity in 2014 and 2015, respectively.
Business friendly?
When it comes to business-friendliness, South Africa is fDi's top African country. A testament to its open and stable business environment, the country boasts the highest cluster of knowledge-based companies. South Africa also recorded the highest number of expansions in the region on the real-time FDI database, fDi Markets, a clear indication that business are happy to do business in the country.
Egypt ranks second for business-friendliness, with fDi Markets recording nine FDI signals (early-warning signs that a company may be considering investment) in the past 18 months. Given the country's current political unrest, it remains to be seen how many of these projects will come to fruition.
With one of the lowest corporation tax rates in the region, Mauritius is third for business-friendliness. According to the latest World Bank Doing Business ranking, Mauritius is the easiest location in Africa for doing business, and is positioned 19th globally.

Comparative strategies

Based on information submitted by African countries with regards to their FDI strategies, Mauritius and Morocco finish joint top of our FDI Strategy category.
Promoting itself as "the jewel of Africa", Mauritius is targeting investors in the financial services, hospitality, property development, IT and business process outsourcing sectors. In its submission, the Mauritian Board of Investment (BOI) looks to the future of the African region, saying: “Since the global investment trend is gradually shifting towards Africa, BOI is positioning itself to play a crucial role in positioning Mauritius as the gateway to this new frontier of growth.”
Morocco’s FDI-friendly environment is encapsulated in Agence Marocaine de Developpement des Investissements' African Countries of the Future submission, which says: “With its solid macroeconomic fundamentals, unique set of free-trade agreements, competitive labour costs, world-class infrastructure, business-friendly environment and attractive set of incentives, Morocco has all the ingredients to become a location of the future.”
One of the world’s largest producers of diamonds, Botswana enjoys stable economic growth, low levels of corruption and a stable political regime, one of the few such success stories in Africa. Botswana Investment and Trade Centre has recently launched a brand awareness scheme with the slogan ‘Go Botswana’ which it states “highlights our national assets, including our people, culture, tourism attractions, business potential and our reputation as a country with good governance.”
Namibia, which is placed in fourth in the FDI Strategy category, highlighted in its submission its efforts to realign its strategy in order to attract future FDI. Its entry states: “To kick-start the process of addressing Namibia’s economic and business ratings, consultations with World Bank experts are already under way. We have established the Business and Intellectual Property Authority (BIPA) to improve service delivery and the effective administration of business and intellectual property rights registration by serving as a one-stop centre. The review of our incentives also cements the country’s commitment to increasing greenfield and brownfield FDI.”
Africa has experienced significant growth in the past decade. However this growth should be viewed in context – the countries on the continent are expanding from a low base and living standards as well as business environments often do not measure up to other world regions. Yet this represents an opportunity for future growth. If the region continues in its efforts to tackle poverty, corruption, inadequate infrastructures and political issues, Africa’s competitiveness on a global scale can only get better.

Methodology

To create the shortlist for fDi African Countries of the Future 2013/14, the fDi Intelligence division of the Financial Times collected data using the specialist online FDI tools fDi Benchmark and fDi Markets as well as other sources. Data was collected for 55 countries under five categories: Economic Potential, Labour Environment, Cost-Effectiveness, Infrastructure and Business Friendliness. A sixth category was added: FDI Strategy. In this category, 20 submissions were received from African countries regarding their current strategy for FDI promotion and this was scored by the judging panel. Countries scored up to a maximum of 10 points under each individual data point, which were weighted by importance to the FDI decision-making process in order to compile both the subcategory rankings, as well as the overall African Countries of the Future ranking.